Jeff Atwood has an interesting post on web programming vs traditional desktop development. But he goes way too far with this blanket statement:
Pretty soon, all programming will be web programming. If you don’t think that’s a cause for celebration for the average working programmer, then maybe you should find another profession.
All you say? Really?
Putting aside entire fields such as embedded systems, game development, database administration, mainframes, developer tools and compilers, network management, systems administration, configuration management, identity management, source code control systems, etc; one could say that “all end user application development will soon be web programming”. But even that is unlikely.
First of all the death of the desktop application a long way off. I have email accounts with Yahoo and Gmail, but both feed into my Thunderbird email desktop app. I only use the web interface when I am forced to use another computer. Word processing is still done predominantly on desktop apps. As is IM, media editing, and a host of over things that people do on a day to day basis.
Even a good portion of web development will soon be desktop development. Or put another way, instead of writing clunky web applications that at best approach what is possible on a desktop app, RIAs will be written in Silverlight, Flash, or JavaFX that deliver true desktop app functionality on the web.