Johannes Ernst is predicting the demise of the RDBMS (and by extension Oracle) due to the growing popularity of NoSQL. While these kinds of technology trends are hard to predict, there is a lot of logic to what Johannes is saying. He could very well be proven prophetic.
But this is familiar ground. We have been here before.
I remember in the mid 90’s when Object Databases were going to kill the RDBMS. Of course what really happened was that Object-Relational-Mapping APIs became popular instead.
Later XML Databases were going to kill the RDBMS. Instead RDBMS vendors added native XML capabilities to their mainline products.
There are specific functional areas where RDBMSs have been displaced. For instance LDAP directories have mostly replaced RDBMSs for identity and authentication information. But this has not dented overall RDBMS usage.
So can NoSQL slay the RDBMS after OO and XML failed? Perhaps, but I wouldn’t short Oracle just yet.